Uncertainty quantification of the anisotropic thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviors of host rock and reliability analysis of deep underground structures
Topic description
Context :
The uncertainties quantifications of rock behavior and their consideration in the stability analysis present a great challenge in deep underground construction projects.
If the high heterogeneous characteristic in nature of the rock formation is known as the intrinsic source of the uncertainty, another source related to the lack of knowledge (insufficient number of data, simplified mathematical models to describe the physical phenomena, etc.
could also contribute significantly on the uncertainty of the mechanical properties measured / observed in the laboratory and in-situ.
Additionally, in many contexts, such as the deep disposal of radioactive waste, the uncertainty of the multi-physical coupling (e.
g., thermo-hydro-mechanical behavior) plays a decisive role in the short and long-term stability of the underground structure.
In France, different experiment programs conducted by the French National Radioactive Waste Management Agency (Andra) have been carried out at the Meuse-Haute-Marne Underground Research Laboratory (MHM URL) and at small-scale laboratory tests in order to characterize the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) behavior of the host rock, the Callovo- Oxfordian (COx) claystone.
These experiments were largely instrumented to measure the evolution of temperature and pore pressures in the COx argillite.
The observation exhibits an anisotropic response of temperature and pore pressure. The in-situ experiments have been the subject of in-depth studies to characterize the properties of the COx claystone which will then be used for the numerical modeling of the THM behavior of the storage structure.
Very often, the calibration of the thermo-poro-elastic properties is carried out based on deterministic simulations. However, the interpretation has not yet resulted in the uncertainty and variability of the THM parameters corresponding to all these experiments, as well as the small-scale laboratory tests.
In general, the presence of different sources of uncertainty (e.g., sensor positions and measurement accuracies, initial and boundary conditions, behavior model, interaction between multi-physical parameters) which are combined with the heterogeneous nature of the host rock explains a dispersion between numerical simulations and in-situ measurements.
It is also important to note that these predictions of the long-term behavior of the host rock by the extrapolation of the results determined from data captured at a limited duration inherently present the uncertainties which must be characterized, verified, and updated in the time using data of the new measurements.
Funding category
Public funding alone (i.e. government, region, European, international organization research grant)
Funding further details
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